Substitute Goods

3 of 5 stars
Method Name Substitute Goods
Category High Budget
Popularity Medium
Risk High
Reward High
Difficulty Difficult
Required Time Medium
MRP 200000
First Time FIFA 13
Similar Method Complementary Goods
Substitute Goods is a FUT trading method that takes advantage of the price fluctuation of an item when a replacement is released.

The Method

A substitute good is the opposite of a complementary good. This method comes into play when there is a new card that replaces another one. Player X is introduced into the game and people buy him as a replacement for player Y. Therefore, player Y drops in price as everyone is selling him. It’s the same as Sony launching a new PlayStation. The price of the old models drops as people replace their old devices with the new console. Transposing to Ultimate Team, a second inform item is a substitute good for the first inform.

This method works better with special cards, because people will recognize them better as replacements, but you can also do it with regular rare players. All you have to do is to find a substitute for the newly launched card and buy it when it is at its lowest point. After the panic sell, the price will rise again and you will be able to make a profit.

This method only works if the player that dropped is META enough and the price of the substitute goes down enough. This is the first signal that he may be a substitute for the first one.

Common Mistakes

When using the Substitute Goods Method, the most common mistakes are the following ones:

Low Demand
In order to work, the new item has to be really wanted. Otherwise, there won’t be any fluctuation in the price of the potential substitute good.

Picking the Wrong Substitutes
Sometimes it’s not obvious who are the substitute goods of the new cards. If you don’t know to identify them, we suggest doing it only with IF’s.

Step by Step

    1. Choose your Targets
      On the release of a new card, you’ve got to be fast. As soon as you notice
      that EA releases a new item for an amazing price, make a list of substitute cards based on their similar stats, position, league or team. Track their prices every
      15 minutes and notice if they stop crashing. When they stabilize, wait another 15 minutes. If they really stopped crashing, go and invest.<


    1. Buy
      It’s not easy to identify when a card reached their lowest point. If you are unsure, it is better to wait until it starts rising again, rather than buying too
      early and lose coins. Keep tracking a cards’ price that is a substitute good
      to the new released player. Watch the price every 15 minutes. Don’t get greedy. Patience is key. And if you don’t trust it: don’t buy at all.


    1. Hold
      Usually, it can take several hours before a card starts rising after a crash. With gold cards (or other cards in packs) it might even take a few days.


  1. Sell
    As soon as you are happy with the price, list your items. To understand if a price is low enough, start looking at similar cards and see how much they are worth. Don’t forget to check how much they dropped. If they dropped a lot for their original prices, they probably won’t fall that much more. Knowing how many cards are being listed under BIN and how quickly they are being bought is also a good indicator.

Experts Opinion

“We don’t recommend this method for inexperienced traders. Except for obvious cases (IF’s and other special cards), it’s difficult to pick a substitute good. They need to be in high demand and you never are 100% sure if the price reached the lowest point or not.”