A substitute good is the opposite of a complementary good. This method comes into play when there is a new card that replaces another one. Player X is introduced into the game and people buy him as a replacement for player Y. Therefore, player Y drops in price as everyone is selling him. It’s the same as Sony launching a new PlayStation. The price of the old models drops as people replace their old devices with the new console. Transposing to FUT, a second inform item is a substitute good for the first inform.
This method works better with special cards, because people will recognize them better as replacements, but you can also do it with regular rare players. All you have to do is to find a substitute for the newly launched card and buy it when it is at its lowest point. After the panic sell, the price will rise again and you will be able to make a profit.
This method only works if the player that dropped is META enough and the price of the substitute goes down enough. This is the first signal that he may be a substitute for the first one.
When using the Substitute Goods Method, the most common mistakes are the following ones:
In order to work, the new item has to be really wanted. Otherwise, there won’t be any fluctuation in the price of the potential substitute good.
Picking the Wrong Substitutes
Sometimes it’s not obvious who are the substitute goods of the new cards. If you don’t know to identify them, we suggest doing it only with IF’s.
Step by Step
- Choose your Targets
On the release of a new card, you’ve got to be fast. As soon as you notice
that EA releases a new item for an amazing price, make a list of substitute cards based on their similar stats, position, league or team. Track their prices every
15 minutes and notice if they stop crashing. When they stabilize, wait another 15 minutes. If they really stopped crashing, go and invest.<
- Choose your Targets
It’s not easy to identify when a card reached their lowest point. If you are unsure, it is better to wait until it starts rising again, rather than buying too
early and lose coins. Keep tracking a cards’ price that is a substitute good
to the new released player. Watch the price every 15 minutes. Don’t get greedy. Patience is key. And if you don’t trust it: don’t buy at all.
Usually, it can take several hours before a card starts rising after a crash. With gold cards (or other cards in packs) it might even take a few days.
As soon as you are happy with the price, list your items. To understand if a price is low enough, start looking at similar cards and see how much they are worth. Don’t forget to check how much they dropped. If they dropped a lot for their original prices, they probably won’t fall that much more. Knowing how many cards are being listed under BIN and how quickly they are being bought is also a good indicator.
“We don’t recommend this method for inexperienced traders. Except for obvious cases (IF’s and other special cards), it’s difficult to pick a substitute good. They need to be in high demand and you never are 100% sure if the price reached the lowest point or not.”